U.S. stock futures pointed to a divided open on Monday as traders weighed the first direct exchange of missile strikes between Israel and Iran since the April ceasefire. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.34% to 7,425.75 as of 6:00 a.m. ET, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.72% to 29,234.25, recovering slightly from Friday’s steep sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, however, dipped 0.11% to 50,880.00, reflecting lingering anxiety over energy-driven inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. The mixed picture signals that markets are struggling to price in the new risk premium created by Sunday’s escalation.
The VIX, Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, hovered near 19.67 after closing Friday at roughly the same level, suggesting traders remain on edge but not panicked. The index had spiked above 21 intraday on Friday before settling lower as the Nasdaq suffered its worst single-day decline since April 2025, falling 4.18% to 25,709.43. The S&P 500 shed 2.64% to 7,383.74 on Friday, and the Dow lost 695 points, or 1.35%, to 50,866.78, according to data from the June 5 close. Options markets are pricing in elevated intraday swings for Monday’s session.
Pre-market positioning suggests a defensive tilt. Energy and defense names are seeing elevated interest, while mega-cap technology stocks remain under pressure after last week’s rout. South Korea’s Kospi index plunged more than 8% overnight, triggering a trading halt, as foreign investors dumped semiconductor-heavy exposure. The turmoil compounded already fragile sentiment entering a week that also features a Federal Reserve decision on interest rates and a key inflation reading on Thursday. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, but the oil spike complicates the inflation narrative.
Investors are watching for any diplomatic signals from Washington. President Donald Trump told Fox News on Sunday that the missile attacks were “certainly not going to help negotiations” and that Israel would have “no choice” but to accept a U.S.-brokered peace deal with Iran. The White House confirmed it had briefed Trump after Iran struck Israeli territory for the first time since the ceasefire took effect in April. An Iranian official involved in talks with Washington said “a deal with President Trump is no longer feasible at this stage,” according to reports, dimming hopes for a quick diplomatic resolution before markets opened.
