Stock futures are pointing to a positive open Wednesday as the S&P 500 looks to extend its winning streak following Tuesday’s fresh all-time high. S&P 500 futures are up 0.4%, Nasdaq-100 futures are ahead 0.5%, and Dow futures are gaining 180 points. The tone is set by a continued slide in oil prices and a modest pullback in bond yields that’s breathing new life into the risk-on trade.
WTI crude fell another 2.3% in overnight trading to $87.40 a barrel, extending this week’s decline to nearly 7%. The catalyst is a double dose of supply relief: the US-Iran ceasefire framework that took shape over the weekend continues to weigh on the geopolitical risk premium, and this morning’s API data showed a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories. For equity markets, lower oil is being read as a direct tailwind for consumer spending and a check in the inflation column — exactly the combination that keeps the Fed on a path toward eventual rate cuts.
Here’s what to watch during the session: The economic calendar is relatively quiet. Mortgage applications data at 7:00 AM ET showed purchase activity edging higher as rates eased slightly. Richmond Fed manufacturing index prints at 10:00 AM — consensus expects a -2 reading, a modest improvement from last month’s -7. The Treasury will auction $58 billion in 5-year notes at 1:00 PM, and the bid-to-cover ratio will be watched closely as a gauge of demand at the intermediate part of the curve.
In single-stock movers, consumer discretionary names are getting a pre-market bid. Amazon is up 1.2%, Home Depot is gaining 0.8%, and Airbnb is ahead 2.1% on the falling-oil narrative. Energy stocks are reversing yesterday’s losses modestly — ExxonMobil is flat, Chevron is up 0.3% — as traders note the sector may be oversold after the three-day selloff. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 4.32%, down six basis points from Tuesday’s close, providing the rates backdrop for equities to keep climbing.
