So, stock futures are ripping this morning. Dow futures are up 350 points. S&P 500 futures are ahead 1.4%. Nasdaq-100 futures are gaining 1.6%. This is a textbook risk-on open driven by one thing: Middle East ceasefire hopes.
Here’s what we know: US and Iranian negotiators are closing in on a framework agreement brokered through Oman and Qatar. Reports overnight suggest a 60-day halt in hostilities could be announced as early as today. The market is treating this as a genuine de-escalation, not just another round of talks.
The VIX is falling sharply — down to 18.20 from 24.50 at Wednesday’s close. That’s a 26% drop in two sessions. Bond yields are steady at 4.35% on the 10-year. The dollar is flat. The setup is clear: lower geopolitical risk, lower uncertainty, higher appetite for equities.
Oil is getting hammered. WTI crude is down 3.8% to $80.40 in pre-market trading. The logic is simple — a credible ceasefire opens the door for sanctions relief and Iranian barrels returning to global markets. Energy stocks are under pressure but every other sector is catching a bid.
Data calendar is empty today — just some Fed-speak from Williams at 11:00 AM. After that, it’s a glide path into the 1:00 PM close for the holiday weekend. Watch the first 30 minutes for follow-through. If breadth holds, this could be the strongest single-session rally of the month.
The bottom line: Ceasefire hopes, lower oil, plunging VIX, and a three-day weekend. Markets love this combination. Don’t fight the tape.
